Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 58.61%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Roda JC had a probability of 20.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9%) and 1-0 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.81%), while for a Roda JC win it was 1-2 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
0.45) 
-0.18) 
