Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruz Azul win with a probability of 55.32%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruz Azul win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.74%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Toluca win it was 0-1 (7.02%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cruz Azul would win this match.
