Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigres win with a probability of 40.25%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 33.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigres win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-0 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
0.47) 
-0.63) 
