SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 58.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Pumas had a probability of 19.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.41%) and 2-0 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a Pumas win it was 1-2 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toluca | Draw | Pumas |
58.81% ( 0.29) | 21.44% ( -0.02) | 19.75% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 56.48% ( -0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.79% ( -0.3) | 41.21% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.4% ( -0.3) | 63.6% ( 0.31) |
| Toluca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.29% ( -0) | 13.71% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.05% ( -0.02) | 40.94% ( 0.02) |
| Pumas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.45% ( -0.44) | 34.55% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.73% ( -0.48) | 71.27% ( 0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toluca | Draw | Pumas |
| 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 9.41% ( 0.12)2-0 @ 9.35% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 6.58% ( 0)3-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 3.5% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 3.27% ( 0)4-0 @ 3.08% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.3% 5-0 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.23% Total : 58.81% | 1-1 @ 10% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 4.74% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.18% Total : 21.44% | 1-2 @ 5.32% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 5.03% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.67% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.03% Total : 19.75% |
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