SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 43.17%. A win for Necaxa had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.03%) and 0-2 (6.99%). The likeliest Necaxa win was 1-0 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Necaxa | Draw | Toluca |
31.95% ( 0.09) | 24.89% ( 0.07) | 43.17% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 57.01% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.86% ( -0.27) | 46.14% ( 0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.57% ( -0.26) | 68.44% ( 0.27) |
| Necaxa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.54% ( -0.08) | 27.46% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.05% ( -0.1) | 62.95% ( 0.1) |
| Toluca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.6% ( -0.19) | 21.4% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.6% ( -0.29) | 54.4% ( 0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Necaxa | Draw | Toluca |
| 1-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 7.57% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.91% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.26% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.51% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.12% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 2.94% Total : 31.95% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 5.83% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.89% | 0-1 @ 9.06% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 9.03% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.99% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.64% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 3.59% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.79% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.54% Total : 43.17% |
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