Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 37.92%. A win for Pumas had a probability of 36.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.41%) and 0-2 (6.1%). The likeliest Pumas win was 1-0 (8.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.

Result
Pumas	Draw	Toluca
36.72% ( 0.21)	25.37% ( -0.02)	37.92% ( -0.19)

Both teams to score 56.44% (

0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.65% (

0.08)

47.35% (

-0.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.43% (

0.07)

69.57% (

-0.07)

Pumas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.8% (

0.15)

25.2% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.07% (

0.21)

59.93% (

-0.21)

Toluca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.46% (

-0.07)

24.54% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.98% (

-0.1)

59.02% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Pumas 36.72%

Toluca 37.92%

Draw 25.36%

Pumas	Draw	Toluca
1-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.25% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.79% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 2.7% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.75% Total : 36.72%	1-1 @ 11.97% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.19% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.8% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.36%	0-1 @ 8.69% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 8.41% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 6.1% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 3.94% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.71% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 1.87% Total : 37.92%