SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 53.17%. A win for Queretaro had a probability of 24.16% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.87%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Queretaro win was 1-2 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toluca | Draw | Queretaro |
53.17% ( 2.26) | 22.67% ( -0.36) | 24.16% ( -1.9) |
| Both teams to score 58.57% ( -0.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.63% ( -0.15) | 41.37% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.23% ( -0.15) | 63.76% ( 0.14) |
| Toluca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.42% ( 0.73) | 15.58% ( -0.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.45% ( 1.36) | 44.55% ( -1.36) |
| Queretaro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.38% ( -1.58) | 30.61% ( 1.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.14% ( -1.91) | 66.85% ( 1.9) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toluca | Draw | Queretaro |
| 2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.13) 1-0 @ 8.87% ( 0.28)2-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.46)3-1 @ 6.05% ( 0.23)3-0 @ 5.11% ( 0.4)3-2 @ 3.58% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.17)4-0 @ 2.37% ( 0.24)4-2 @ 1.66% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.67% Total : 53.17% | 1-1 @ 10.49% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 5.78% ( -0.18)0-0 @ 4.77% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.21% Total : 22.66% | 1-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.36) 0-1 @ 5.65% ( -0.22)0-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.28)1-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.26)2-3 @ 2.28% ( -0.18)0-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.17)Other @ 2.91% Total : 24.16% |
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