SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 66.12%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Auxerre had a probability of 15.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.81%) and 1-0 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.73%), while for an Auxerre win it was 1-2 (4.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Monaco | Draw | Auxerre |
66.12% ( 0.13) | 18.84% ( -0.06) | 15.04% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 55.73% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.52% ( 0.16) | 37.49% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.29% ( 0.17) | 59.71% ( -0.16) |
| Monaco Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.45% ( 0.08) | 10.55% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.72% ( 0.17) | 34.29% ( -0.17) |
| Auxerre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.3% ( 0.01) | 37.7% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.52% ( 0.01) | 74.48% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Monaco | Draw | Auxerre |
| 2-0 @ 10.06% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 8.95% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 7.36% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 4.14% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.59% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.02% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.86% ( 0.02)5-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.76% Total : 66.12% | 1-1 @ 8.73% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.79% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.98% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0)Other @ 0.18% Total : 18.84% | 1-2 @ 4.26% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 3.88% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 1.89% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.56% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.07% Total : 15.05% |
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