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PL
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 6
Sep 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Municipal Georges Lefevre
M

PSG
4 - 0
Marseille

Hakimi (8'), Kolo (37'), Ramos (47', 89')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Gigot (73'), Veretout (82'), Lodi (85')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: PSG 2-0 Dortmund
Tuesday, September 19 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Ajax 3-3 Marseille
Thursday, September 21 at 8pm in Europa League

We said: Paris Saint-Germain 3-1 Marseille

Given that 14 of the last 20 meetings between PSG and Marseille have produced at least three goals, Sunday's instalment of Le Classique will likely be a high-scoring affair. It is also worth noting that Marseille have managed to win just two of their previous 28 matches against PSG across all competitions, so we expect the hosts to claim the bragging rights once again. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 43.2%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 33.26% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.32%) and 2-0 (6.16%). The likeliest Marseille win was 1-2 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.63%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.

Result
Paris Saint-GermainDrawMarseille
43.2% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 23.54% (-0.0019999999999989 -0) 33.26% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Both teams to score 62.36% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.63% (0.021999999999998 0.02)39.36% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.3% (0.022999999999996 0.02)61.7% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Paris Saint-Germain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.41% (0.0050000000000097 0.01)18.58% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.14% (0.010999999999996 0.01)49.86% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.59% (0.015000000000001 0.02)23.41% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.6% (0.024000000000001 0.02)57.39% (-0.026000000000003 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Paris Saint-Germain 43.2%
    Marseille 33.26%
    Draw 23.54%
Paris Saint-GermainDrawMarseille
2-1 @ 8.95% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-0 @ 7.32% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
2-0 @ 6.16% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
3-1 @ 5.02%
3-2 @ 3.64% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 3.46% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
4-1 @ 2.11%
4-2 @ 1.53% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 1.45%
Other @ 3.56%
Total : 43.2%
1-1 @ 10.63%
2-2 @ 6.5% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-0 @ 4.35% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
3-3 @ 1.76% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 23.54%
1-2 @ 7.72% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-1 @ 6.32% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
0-2 @ 4.59%
1-3 @ 3.74% (0.0020000000000002 0)
2-3 @ 3.14% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 2.22% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-4 @ 1.36% (0.0010000000000001 0)
2-4 @ 1.14% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.05%
Total : 33.26%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: PSG 2-0 Dortmund
Tuesday, September 19 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: PSG 2-3 Nice
Friday, September 15 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Lyon 1-4 PSG
Sunday, September 3 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: PSG 3-1 Lens
Saturday, August 26 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Toulouse 1-1 PSG
Saturday, August 19 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: PSG 0-0 Lorient
Saturday, August 12 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Ajax 3-3 Marseille
Thursday, September 21 at 8pm in Europa League
Last Game: Marseille 0-0 Toulouse
Sunday, September 17 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Nantes 1-1 Marseille
Friday, September 1 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 2-0 Brest
Saturday, August 26 at 6pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Metz 2-2 Marseille
Friday, August 18 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 2-1 Panathinaikos (2-4 pen.)
Tuesday, August 15 at 8pm in Champions League


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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