SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 64.53%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 15.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.06%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.66%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (4.73%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toulouse | Draw | Troyes |
64.53% ( 0.12) | 20.33% ( -0.03) | 15.14% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 50.69% ( -0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.78% ( -0.02) | 44.22% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.41% ( -0.02) | 66.6% ( 0.02) |
| Toulouse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.04% ( 0.03) | 12.96% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 60.56% ( 0.06) | 39.44% ( -0.06) |
| Troyes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.24% ( -0.13) | 41.76% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 21.77% ( -0.12) | 78.23% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toulouse | Draw | Troyes |
| 2-0 @ 11.29% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 11.06% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 9.87% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.7% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 6.72% ( 0)4-0 @ 3.93% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 3.43% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.61% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.5% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.4% ( 0)Other @ 3.08% Total : 64.52% | 1-1 @ 9.66% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.41% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.96% Total : 20.33% | 0-1 @ 4.73% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.22% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.66% Total : 15.14% |
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