Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 37.79%. A win for Paris FC had a probability of 34.01% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.92%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Paris FC win was 0-1 (11.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.06) 
