Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 49.14%. A win for Caen had a probability of 25.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (8.93%). The likeliest Caen win was 0-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12% likelihood.
1.04) 
-0.35) 
