Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guingamp win with a probability of 43.84%. A win for Bastia had a probability of 28.4% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guingamp win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (8.53%). The likeliest Bastia win was 0-1 (9.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
-0.01) 
0.02) 
