Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 84.32%. A draw had a probability of 10.7% and a win for Martigues had a probability of 4.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.06%) and 4-0 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.08%), while for a Martigues win it was 0-1 (1.71%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lorient would win this match.
-0.3) 
0.13) 
