In their second game of their UEFA Nations League C campaign, Luxembourg are set to host Belarus at Stade de Luxembourg on Sunday.
The home side are last in fourth place in their group with no points after they lost 2-0 against Northern Ireland on September 5, while the visitors are second with one point after they drew 0-0 with Bulgaria on the same date.
Match preview
Despite having 64% possession when they lost against Northern Ireland, the hosts were not unlucky to lose considering they only managed to produce one shot in the penalty area.
Luxembourg also faced 12 shots in their own box in that game, and they have conceded 11 goals in their last five matches.
In fact, the Red Lions have only kept one clean sheet in their last 11 fixtures, and have lost their last three by a cumulative score of 8-0.
Luxembourg finished second with 11 points in their most recent Nations League C campaign in 2022-23, and only missed out on first place by two points.
The home side have won once, drawn twice and lost twice in their last five Nations League games, scoring six times and conceding on nine occasions in those fixtures.
Luxembourg's home record has been strong of late, and boss Luc Holtz's team have won four of their last five matches at Stade de Luxembourg.
Opponents Belarus come into the clash having drawn against Bulgaria, though they failed to take advantage when Bulgarian midfielder Filip Krastev was sent off in the 74th minute.
The visitors only managed to produce three shots inside Bulgaria's box, and faced 10 from inside their own penalty area.
Manager Carlos Alos Ferrer, who was appointed in August 2023, will be concerned that his side have failed to win any of their last five matches.
Alos's team did not score in any of those fixtures, and though they kept two clean sheets, they still conceded 10 goals in the other three games.
Belarus are unbeaten in their last two Nations League matches, and are also undefeated in their last three away games.
Team News
The hosts will start goalkeeper Anthony Moris, who could be shielded by a four-man defence featuring the likes of Laurent Jans, Lars Gerson and Dirk Carlson.
Centre-back Enes Mahmutovic was substituted at half time for Mica Pinto, and they could move Carlson from left-back to central defence on Sunday if Mahmutovic does not play.
As for the visitors, goalkeeper Fedor Lapoukhov will hope that defenders Yuri Kavalyow, Zakhar Volkov, Aleksandr Martynovic, Pavel Zabelin and Kirill Pechenin can prevent him from facing as many shots from inside the box as he did last time out.
Dmitri Antilevski and Yevgeni Shikavka started in the forward line for Belarus against Bulgaria, and they could be chosen to lead the attack once again.
Luxembourg possible starting lineup:
Moris; Jans, Gerson, Carlson, Pinto; Bohnert, Pereira, Barreiro, Veiga; Olesen, Rodrigues
Belarus possible starting lineup:
Lapoukhov; Kavalyow, Volkov, Martynovich, Zabelin, Pechenin; Yablonski, Kaplenko, Ebong; Shikavka, Antilevski
We say: Luxembourg 1-0 Belarus
Given Belarus's poor form and the fact they have failed to score in the last five matches, it is difficult to see how they win on Sunday.
Although Luxembourg struggled to produce much in way of attacking threat against Northern Ireland, it would not be surprising if they continued their strong home form and collected all three points.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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