SM
| Current Group I Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Romania | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 10 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Israel | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Belarus | 10 | -5 | 12 |
| 5 | Kosovo | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Andorra | 10 | -17 | 2 |
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 8 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Serbia | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 8 | -6 | 6 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 8 | -7 | 4 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 68.58%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Belarus had a probability of 10.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.84%) and 0-3 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.34%), while for a Belarus win it was 1-0 (4.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Belarus | Draw | Bulgaria |
10.85% ( 0.78) | 20.57% ( 0.37) | 68.58% ( -1.16) |
| Both teams to score 38.3% ( 1.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.61% ( 0.46) | 54.39% ( -0.47) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.24% ( 0.38) | 75.76% ( -0.39) |
| Belarus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.02% ( 1.82) | 54.98% ( -1.82) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.13% ( 1.06) | 87.87% ( -1.06) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.06% ( -0.22) | 14.93% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.67% ( -0.41) | 43.33% ( 0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| Belarus | Draw | Bulgaria |
| 1-0 @ 4.91% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 2.79% ( 0.23)2-0 @ 1.47% ( 0.13)Other @ 1.67% Total : 10.85% | 1-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.28) 0-0 @ 8.21% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.2)Other @ 0.36% Total : 20.57% | 0-1 @ 15.61% ( -0.4) 0-2 @ 14.84% ( -0.5)0-3 @ 9.41% ( -0.39)1-2 @ 8.88% ( 0.2)1-3 @ 5.63% ( 0.09)0-4 @ 4.47% ( -0.22)1-4 @ 2.68% ( 0.02)0-5 @ 1.7% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 1.68% ( 0.12)1-5 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.66% Total : 68.58% |
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