With 10 straight home wins and a draw, it is difficult to go against the hosts in this one, especially against a Nashville side that are riding a three-match away losing run and are winless in their last four in all competitions. We only see one result here, and that is for Cincinnati to win by at least two goals.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 48.39%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Nashville SC had a probability of 25.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.41%) and 2-1 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.49%), while for a Nashville SC win it was 0-1 (8.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
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