FC Cincinnati's momentum has slowed slightly, and they are missing several key players, while the hosts are gaining in confidence, and we fancy the Red Bulls to get a positive result on home turf.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 53.71%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 21.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.99%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.6%), while for a FC Cincinnati win it was 0-1 (6.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.04) 
