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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nashville SC win with a probability of 68.37%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 13.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nashville SC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.77%), while for a St Louis City win it was 0-1 (3.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nashville SC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nashville SC | Draw | St Louis City |
68.37% ( -0.31) | 18.54% ( 0.07) | 13.09% ( 0.25) |
| Both teams to score 51.26% ( 0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.35% ( 0.28) | 40.65% ( -0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.96% ( 0.28) | 63.03% ( -0.28) |
| Nashville SC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.13% ( -0) | 10.87% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.02% ( -0.01) | 34.98% ( 0.01) |
| St Louis City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.51% ( 0.55) | 42.49% ( -0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.14% ( 0.47) | 78.86% ( -0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nashville SC | Draw | St Louis City |
| 2-0 @ 11.37% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 10.24% ( -0.13)2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 8.41% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 7.2% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 4.67% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 4% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.08% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 2.07% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.77% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.71% ( 0.03)Other @ 4.09% Total : 68.36% | 1-1 @ 8.77% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.62% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 4.17% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.99% Total : 18.54% | 0-1 @ 3.95% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.75% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 1.69% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.43% Total : 13.09% |
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