SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Dallas | 29 | 7 | 43 |
| 4 | Nashville SC | 29 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 2 | 42 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Los Angeles FC | 28 | 25 | 57 |
| 2 | Austin FC | 28 | 21 | 51 |
| 3 | Minnesota United | 28 | 4 | 44 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nashville SC win with a probability of 56.1%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nashville SC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for an Austin FC win it was 0-1 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nashville SC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nashville SC | Draw | Austin FC |
56.1% ( 0.35) | 23.1% ( -0.15) | 20.8% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 52.65% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.9% ( 0.34) | 47.1% ( -0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.66% ( 0.32) | 69.34% ( -0.33) |
| Nashville SC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.4% ( 0.25) | 16.6% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.59% ( 0.45) | 46.41% ( -0.45) |
| Austin FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.13% ( -0.02) | 36.87% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.35% ( -0.02) | 73.65% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nashville SC | Draw | Austin FC |
| 1-0 @ 10.99% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 9.87% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 5.91% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 5.89% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.94% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.65% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 2.65% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.14% Total : 56.1% | 1-1 @ 10.96% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 6.12% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 23.09% | 0-1 @ 6.11% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 5.47% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 3.05% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.63% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.71% Total : 20.8% |
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