SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Los Angeles FC | 23 | 24 | 51 |
| 2 | Austin FC | 24 | 19 | 45 |
| 3 | Dallas | 25 | 7 | 36 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 24 | -10 | 25 |
| 9 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | -17 | 23 |
| 10 | DC United | 23 | -20 | 22 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 63.67%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 16.08%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.55%), while for a Sporting Kansas City win it was 0-1 (4.59%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Austin FC | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
63.67% ( 0.21) | 20.24% ( -0.08) | 16.08% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 53.24% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.04% ( 0.12) | 41.95% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.64% ( 0.12) | 64.36% ( -0.12) |
| Austin FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.48% ( 0.1) | 12.51% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.48% ( 0.2) | 38.52% ( -0.2) |
| Sporting Kansas City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.86% ( -0.09) | 39.14% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.14% ( -0.09) | 75.85% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Austin FC | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
| 2-0 @ 10.57% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 10.17% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0)3-0 @ 7.33% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 6.88% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 3.81% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.57% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.22% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.58% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.49% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.44% Total : 63.66% | 1-1 @ 9.55% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 4.9% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.24% | 0-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 4.48% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.01)Other @ 2% Total : 16.08% |
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