The Red Bulls appear to be back to their old selves defensively, and although they still have work to do in the attacking third, we expect them to get a big boost from the return of numerous players who were missing earlier this week.
It has been a Jekyll and Hyde season for Le CFM, and they could find it difficult to penetrate a Red Bulls team who look reinvigorated defensively since changing coaches.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 52.32%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for CF Montreal had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.46%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a CF Montreal win it was 0-1 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
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