SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Darlington win with a probability of 42.32%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 31.29% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Darlington win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 0-1 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Darlington would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Darlington | Draw | Alfreton Town |
42.32% ( 0.04) | 26.39% ( -0.01) | 31.29% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 51.81% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.23% ( 0.02) | 52.76% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.61% ( 0.02) | 74.39% ( -0.02) |
| Darlington Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.31% ( 0.03) | 24.68% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.78% ( 0.05) | 59.21% ( -0.05) |
| Alfreton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.79% ( -0.02) | 31.21% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.45% ( -0.02) | 67.55% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Darlington | Draw | Alfreton Town |
| 1-0 @ 10.77% 2-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.09% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.38% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.43% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.23% ( 0)Other @ 2.57% Total : 42.31% | 1-1 @ 12.55% 0-0 @ 7.7% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.11% ( 0)3-3 @ 0.93% Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.39% | 0-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.31% ( -0)0-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.84% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.03% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.98% Other @ 2.94% Total : 31.29% |
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