Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alfreton Town win with a probability of 42.74%. A win for Southport had a probability of 31.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alfreton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Southport win was 0-1 (8.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Alfreton Town would win this match.

Result
Alfreton Town	Draw	Southport
42.74% ( 0.96)	25.46% ( 0.07)	31.8% ( -1.03)

Both teams to score 55.04% (

-0.6)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.31% (

-0.62)

48.69% (

0.62)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.2% (

-0.56)

70.8% (

0.56)

Alfreton Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.31% (

0.2)

22.69% (

-0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.66% (

0.29)

56.34% (

-0.29)

Southport Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.19% (

-0.97)

28.81% (

0.97)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.33% (

-1.22)

64.67% (

1.22)

Score Analysis

Alfreton Town 42.74%

Southport 31.8%

Draw 25.45%

Alfreton Town	Draw	Southport
1-0 @ 9.7% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 7.19% ( 0.26) 3-1 @ 4.43% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 3.56% ( 0.15) 3-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.19% Total : 42.74%	1-1 @ 12.06% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.54% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 5.57% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.45%	0-1 @ 8.13% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.51% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.15) 1-3 @ 3.11% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.61% Total : 31.8%