Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 70.26%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 11.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.21%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.64%), while for an Alfreton Town win it was 0-1 (3.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
