SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hereford United win with a probability of 41.12%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 33.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hereford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Chorley win was 0-1 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Hereford United | Draw | Chorley |
41.12% ( 0.43) | 25.8% ( -0.09) | 33.08% ( -0.33) |
| Both teams to score 54.32% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.19% ( 0.32) | 49.8% ( -0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.19% ( 0.29) | 71.81% ( -0.29) |
| Hereford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.02% ( 0.36) | 23.97% ( -0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.78% ( 0.52) | 58.21% ( -0.51) |
| Chorley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.46% ( -0.05) | 28.54% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.67% ( -0.07) | 64.33% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hereford United | Draw | Chorley |
| 1-0 @ 9.77% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.75% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 6.98% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 4.17% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 3.32% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.61% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.49% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.92% Total : 41.12% | 1-1 @ 12.25% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.84% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 5.49% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.8% | 0-1 @ 8.58% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 7.68% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 5.38% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 3.21% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.68% Total : 33.08% |
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