SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 58.76%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 19.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.85%) and 2-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.18%), while for an Alfreton Town win it was 1-2 (5.27%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Notts County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Notts County | Draw | Alfreton Town |
58.76% ( -0.21) | 21.68% ( 0.1) | 19.56% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 55.29% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.38% ( -0.29) | 42.62% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.98% ( -0.29) | 65.02% ( 0.3) |
| Notts County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.81% ( -0.16) | 14.19% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.11% ( -0.32) | 41.89% ( 0.32) |
| Alfreton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.43% ( -0.05) | 35.56% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.67% ( -0.05) | 72.33% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Notts County | Draw | Alfreton Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.95% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.85% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 9.62% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.48% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 6.26% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 3.16% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 3.06% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.24% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.97% Total : 58.76% | 1-1 @ 10.18% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.68% | 1-2 @ 5.27% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 5.22% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 2.7% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 1.81% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.77% ( -0)0-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.87% Total : 19.56% |
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