Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 66.4%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Eastleigh had a probability of 14.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.03%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.05%), while for a Eastleigh win it was 0-1 (4.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
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