Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 57.27%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Oxford City had a probability of 20.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.98%) and 1-2 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.75%), while for a Oxford City win it was 1-0 (5.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
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