SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Turkey | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Georgia | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Czech Republic | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 61.76%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 17.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.62%) and 1-0 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Iceland win it was 1-2 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Turkey would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Turkey | Draw | Iceland |
61.76% ( -0.01) | 20.41% ( 0.1) | 17.82% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 56.43% ( -0.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.43% ( -0.61) | 39.56% ( 0.61) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.08% ( -0.64) | 61.91% ( 0.63) |
| Turkey Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.67% ( -0.19) | 12.32% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.87% ( -0.39) | 38.12% ( 0.39) |
| Iceland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.36% ( -0.47) | 35.63% ( 0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.59% ( -0.49) | 72.4% ( 0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Turkey | Draw | Iceland |
| 2-1 @ 9.93% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.62% ( 0.13)1-0 @ 9.19% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 6.93% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 6.72% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.63% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.58% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 3.52% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.87% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 1.52% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.47% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.78% Total : 61.76% | 1-1 @ 9.49% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 4.39% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.18% Total : 20.41% | 1-2 @ 4.89% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 4.53% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 2.34% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.61% Total : 17.82% |
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