It is difficult to back Arsenal with any real confidence after watching the calamity at St James' Park, but the Emirates soil has been kind to them this season, and one could forgive Everton for still revelling in the Thursday night celebrations.
With the visitors now having nothing to play for and feeling the effects of their midweek exertions, we have faith in Arsenal to get the three points that they require, but it may pale into insignificance depending on Spurs' result.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 65.46%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Everton had a probability of 14.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.67%), while for a Everton win it was 0-1 (4.78%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
0.22) 
-0.45) 
