Everton have certainly demonstrated more of a fighting spirit in recent matches, and the travelling crowd should be fired up to the maximum for Sunday's derby, but that is unlikely to translate into the result that matters.
On paper, the Premier League's best home side taking on the division's worst away team only spells one outcome, and we are not expecting any shocks to occur as the red half of Merseyside celebrates at the full-time whistle.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 88.19%. A draw had a probability of 8% and a win for Everton had a probability of 3.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (9.5%) and 2-0 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.6%), while for a Everton win it was 1-2 (1.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.
