SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 57.02%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 20.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.52%) and 2-0 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for a Luton Town win it was 1-2 (5.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester United | Draw | Luton Town |
57.02% ( -0.01) | 22.02% | 20.96% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 56.45% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.83% ( 0.01) | 42.17% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.42% ( 0.01) | 64.57% ( -0.01) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.41% ( 0) | 14.58% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.33% ( 0) | 42.66% |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.09% ( 0.01) | 33.91% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.42% ( 0.01) | 70.58% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester United | Draw | Luton Town |
| 2-1 @ 9.91% 1-0 @ 9.52% ( -0)2-0 @ 9.16% ( -0)3-1 @ 6.36% 3-0 @ 5.88% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.44% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.06% 4-0 @ 2.83% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.66% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.18% 5-0 @ 1.09% Other @ 2.92% Total : 57.02% | 1-1 @ 10.29% 2-2 @ 5.36% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.95% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0)Other @ 0.18% Total : 22.01% | 1-2 @ 5.57% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.35% 0-2 @ 2.89% 1-3 @ 2.01% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.93% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.04% ( 0)Other @ 2.17% Total : 20.96% |
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