SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Braga | 4 | 14 | 10 |
| 3 | Porto | 4 | 6 | 9 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Sporting Lisbon | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Vitoria de Guimaraes | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Boavista | 4 | -3 | 6 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 60.09%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 17.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (5.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Braga in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Braga.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
60.09% ( 2.24) | 22.27% ( -0.74) | 17.65% ( -1.49) |
| Both teams to score 49.91% ( -0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.96% ( 0.88) | 48.05% ( -0.88) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.79% ( 0.81) | 70.22% ( -0.8) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.43% ( 1.07) | 15.58% ( -1.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.47% ( 1.95) | 44.54% ( -1.94) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.12% ( -1.2) | 40.88% ( 1.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.55% ( -1.09) | 77.45% ( 1.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 11.84% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 11% ( 0.39)2-1 @ 9.85% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 6.82% ( 0.48)3-1 @ 6.1% ( 0.24)4-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.33)4-1 @ 2.84% ( 0.21)3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.27% ( 0.05)5-0 @ 1.18% ( 0.16)5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.23% Total : 60.08% | 1-1 @ 10.59% ( -0.35) 0-0 @ 6.37% ( -0.23)2-2 @ 4.4% ( -0.13)Other @ 0.91% Total : 22.27% | 0-1 @ 5.7% ( -0.41) 1-2 @ 4.74% ( -0.32)0-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.27)1-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.09)Other @ 1.94% Total : 17.65% |
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