SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 46.11%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 27.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (8.35%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-0 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portimonense | Draw | Arouca |
27.96% ( 0.87) | 25.93% ( 0.4) | 46.11% ( -1.28) |
| Both teams to score 51.43% ( -0.61) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.58% ( -1.1) | 52.41% ( 1.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.91% ( -0.95) | 74.09% ( 0.95) |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.52% ( 0.11) | 33.47% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.89% ( 0.11) | 70.11% ( -0.12) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.3% ( -1.04) | 22.7% ( 1.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.64% ( -1.56) | 56.35% ( 1.56) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portimonense | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 8.32% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 6.75% ( 0.12)2-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.22)3-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.66% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.4% Total : 27.96% | 1-1 @ 12.33% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.32)2-2 @ 5% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.93% | 0-1 @ 11.26% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 9.14% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 8.35% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 4.52% ( -0.22)0-3 @ 4.13% ( -0.21)2-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.14)0-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.13)2-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.1% Total : 46.1% |
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