SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 49.9%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 24.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.61%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (8.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Vitoria de Guimaraes in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Vitoria de Guimaraes.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Arouca |
49.9% ( 4.91) | 25.96% ( -0.4) | 24.13% ( -4.51) |
| Both teams to score 48.14% ( -2.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.87% ( -1.39) | 55.13% ( 1.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.62% ( -1.16) | 76.37% ( 1.15) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.86% ( 1.66) | 22.13% ( -1.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.48% ( 2.44) | 55.51% ( -2.44) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.82% ( -4.54) | 38.17% ( 4.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.06% ( -4.65) | 74.93% ( 4.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 12.74% ( 1.25) 2-0 @ 9.61% ( 1.36)2-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.26)3-0 @ 4.83% ( 0.88)3-1 @ 4.65% ( 0.35)3-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 1.82% ( 0.4)4-1 @ 1.75% ( 0.21)Other @ 3.01% Total : 49.9% | 1-1 @ 12.27% ( -0.25) 0-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.45)2-2 @ 4.46% ( -0.44)Other @ 0.79% Total : 25.96% | 0-1 @ 8.14% ( -0.58) 1-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.91)0-2 @ 3.92% ( -0.83)1-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.58)2-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.35)0-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.47)Other @ 1.58% Total : 24.13% |
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