Although Braga have lacked sharpness in recent weeks, facing a struggling Casa Pia side without their captain at the back should hand them the edge, especially with third place still up for grabs and the visitors having more riding on the outcome.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 60.66%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 16.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.04%) and 1-2 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (6.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
0.05) 
-0.05) 
