SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 50.67%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 24.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.55%) and 0-2 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.74%), while for a Moreirense win it was 1-0 (7.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | Porto |
24.63% ( 1.22) | 24.7% ( 0.28) | 50.67% ( -1.5) |
| Both teams to score 52.37% ( 0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.19% ( -0.05) | 49.81% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.19% ( -0.05) | 71.81% ( 0.05) |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.19% ( 1.05) | 34.81% ( -1.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 28.46% ( 1.1) | 71.54% ( -1.09) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.34% ( -0.62) | 19.66% ( 0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.36% ( -1.02) | 51.64% ( 1.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Moreirense | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 7.22% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 6.2% ( 0.24)2-0 @ 3.81% ( 0.22)3-1 @ 2.18% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 1.77% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 1.34% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.1% Total : 24.63% | 1-1 @ 11.74% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 6.84% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.7% | 0-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.19) 1-2 @ 9.55% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 9.05% ( -0.34)1-3 @ 5.18% ( -0.15)0-3 @ 4.91% ( -0.28)2-3 @ 2.73% ( 0)1-4 @ 2.11% ( -0.1)0-4 @ 2% ( -0.16)2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.9% Total : 50.67% |
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