Despite the heavy defeat last week to Porto, we are siding with the hosts in this one. Arouca have won three of their last five games across all competitions, so they come into this match in better form than their opponents. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 36.63%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 35.35% and a draw had a probability of 28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.82%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (11.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Estoril Praia
35.35% ( -0.04)	28.02% ( -0.08)	36.63% ( 0.12)

Both teams to score 47.74% (

0.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.68% (

0.29)

58.32% (

-0.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.06% (

0.23)

78.94% (

-0.23)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.69% (

0.12)

31.31% (

-0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.33% (

0.14)

67.67% (

-0.14)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.5% (

0.22)

30.5% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.28% (

0.26)

66.72% (

-0.26)

Score Analysis

Arouca 35.34%

Estoril Praia 36.62%

Draw 28.01%

Arouca	Draw	Estoril Praia
1-0 @ 11.08% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 7.65% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.44% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 2.96% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 2.49% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.76% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.97% Total : 35.34%	1-1 @ 13.16% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 9.55% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 4.54% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.76% Total : 28.01%	0-1 @ 11.33% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.82% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 6.73% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.1% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 2.67% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.27% Total : 36.62%