On a three-match undefeated streak in the league, Moreirense will fancy their chances to extend that to four with maximum points. However, Arouca will have taken belief from having recently pushed Sporting Lisbon, leading us to predict a low-scoring draw. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 37.17%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.95%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Moreirense in this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Moreirense
35.11% ( -0.18)	27.73% ( 0.05)	37.17% ( 0.13)

Both teams to score 48.6% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.75% (

-0.21)

57.24% (

0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.91% (

-0.17)

78.09% (

0.17)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.07% (

-0.22)

30.93% (

0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.78% (

-0.26)

67.22% (

0.26)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.36% (

-0.02)

29.64% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.32% (

-0.03)

65.68% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Arouca 35.1%

Moreirense 37.16%

Draw 27.72%

Arouca	Draw	Moreirense
1-0 @ 10.75% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.68% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 6.31% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 3% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 2.47% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.06% Total : 35.1%	1-1 @ 13.08% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.17% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.72%	0-1 @ 11.14% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 7.95% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.78% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 3.22% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.75% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0) Other @ 2.45% Total : 37.16%