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Primeira Liga | Gameweek 24
Mar 10, 2023 at 8.15pm UK
Estádio Do Dragão
E

Porto
3 - 2
Estoril

Grujic (9'), Franco (31'), Taremi (73' pen.)
Grujic (4'), Pepe (67'), Galeno (90+4')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Gouveia (27'), Geraldes (67' pen.)
Geraldes (15'), Cassiano (20'), Santos (53'), Gamboa (90+2')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Chaves 1-3 Porto
Saturday, March 4 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Estoril 0-3 Vizela
Saturday, March 4 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Porto 3-0 Estoril Praia

While Estoril Praia will be looking to stop the rot, they face the daunting task of taking on a Porto side who have been near impenetrable at the Estadio do Dragao in recent weeks. Given the gulf in class and quality between the two sides, we are backing Porto to run out winners on Friday and keep the morale high ahead of the Champions League last-16 return leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 85.09%. A draw had a probability of 10.3% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 4.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 3-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.15%) and 4-0 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.87%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (1.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
PortoDrawEstoril Praia
85.09% (0.060000000000002 0.06) 10.27% (-0.039 -0.04) 4.65% (-0.02 -0.02)
Both teams to score 43.19% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
70.17% (0.10499999999999 0.1)29.84% (-0.103 -0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
49.01% (0.125 0.13)50.99% (-0.123 -0.12)
Porto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
95.12% (0.031999999999996 0.03)4.88% (-0.029 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
80.38% (0.088999999999999 0.09)19.62% (-0.086000000000002 -0.09)
Estoril Praia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
45.4% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)54.6% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.36% (0.0030000000000001 0)87.64% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Score Analysis
    Porto 85.08%
    Estoril Praia 4.65%
    Draw 10.27%
PortoDrawEstoril Praia
3-0 @ 12.23%
2-0 @ 12.15% (-0.02 -0.02)
4-0 @ 9.23% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
1-0 @ 8.05% (-0.032 -0.03)
3-1 @ 7.4%
2-1 @ 7.35% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-1 @ 5.59% (0.011 0.01)
5-0 @ 5.58% (0.021 0.02)
5-1 @ 3.38% (0.013 0.01)
6-0 @ 2.81% (0.016 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.24%
6-1 @ 1.7% (0.01 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.69% (0.004 0)
7-0 @ 1.21% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
5-2 @ 1.02% (0.004 0)
Other @ 3.46%
Total : 85.08%
1-1 @ 4.87% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-0 @ 2.67% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-2 @ 2.23% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.51%
Total : 10.27%
0-1 @ 1.61% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
1-2 @ 1.47% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 1.56%
Total : 4.65%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Chaves 1-3 Porto
Saturday, March 4 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Porto 1-2 Gil Vicente
Sunday, February 26 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Inter Milan 1-0 Porto
Wednesday, February 22 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Porto 1-0 Rio Ave
Saturday, February 18 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 1-2 Porto
Sunday, February 12 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Viseu 0-1 Porto
Wednesday, February 8 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Estoril 0-3 Vizela
Saturday, March 4 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-0 Estoril
Monday, February 27 at 7pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Estoril 1-3 Pacos de Ferreira
Saturday, February 18 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Rio Ave 2-0 Estoril
Monday, February 13 at 7pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Estoril 2-1 Boavista
Thursday, February 9 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Estoril 0-1 Guimaraes
Saturday, February 4 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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