Still licking their wounds from their cup exits, Rio Ave and Farense will be looking to pick up a morale-boosting result and we anticipate an exciting battle at the Estadio dos Arcos. Rio Ave have enjoyed the better of this fixture, and given their home advantage, we are backing them to see off Mota's men who have lost their last four away matches.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 48.13%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for SC Farense had a probability of 25.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a SC Farense win it was 0-1 (8.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
0.41) 
-0.45) 
