Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 74.55%. A draw had a probability of 14.8% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 10.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 3-0 (8.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.49%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 1-2 (3.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
74.55% (![]() | 14.75% (![]() | 10.7% (![]() |
Both teams to score 58.09% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
71.7% (![]() | 28.3% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
50.88% (![]() | 49.12% (![]() |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.57% (![]() | 6.43% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
75.93% (![]() | 24.06% (![]() |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.08% (![]() | 37.92% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.31% (![]() | 74.69% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
2-0 @ 9.18% (![]() 2-1 @ 8.9% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 8.4% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 8.14% ( ![]() 1-0 @ 6.69% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 5.76% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 5.59% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 3.95% ( ![]() 5-0 @ 3.16% ( ![]() 5-1 @ 3.07% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 2.71% ( ![]() 5-2 @ 1.49% ( ![]() 6-0 @ 1.45% ( ![]() 6-1 @ 1.4% ( ![]() Other @ 4.66% Total : 74.55% | 1-1 @ 6.49% (![]() 2-2 @ 4.32% ( ![]() 0-0 @ 2.44% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.28% ( ![]() Other @ 0.24% Total : 14.75% | 1-2 @ 3.14% (![]() 0-1 @ 2.36% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 1.4% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 1.15% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 1.02% ( ![]() Other @ 1.63% Total : 10.7% |
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