Moreirense won this fixture home and away last season, but Farense have had a solid pre-season and are arguably slightly more settled given that the visitors have a new manager at the helm.
Both these sides would love the win here but will also want to avoid an opening-match defeat, and we feel they will be fairly content to share the spoils.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SC Farense win with a probability of 40.15%. A win for Moreirense had a probability of 32.74% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a SC Farense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Moreirense win was 0-1 (9.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
-0.48) 
0.69) 
