Arouca should have plenty of motivation to perform well in the club's first ever domestic cup semi-final, especially having put together a decent run of results of late.
However, Sporting have become dominant in this competition in recent seasons and should have too much quality for their opponents in the end.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 52.96%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 23.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.76%) and 0-2 (8.94%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (6.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sporting Lisbon.
0.03) 
-0.04) 
