Saturday's game sees two of the biggest sides in Portuguese football go head to head and this makes for an exciting watch. The reigning champions head into the game in superb form, winning each of their last 10 games across all competitions. While we expect the Leoes to put up a fight, we fancy Porto coming out on top while riding on the wave of support from the home fans. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 50.15%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 26.77% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
Porto	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
50.15% ( -1.21)	23.08% ( 0.3)	26.77% ( 0.91)

Both teams to score 59.86% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.11% (

-0.62)

40.89% (

0.62)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.72% (

-0.63)

63.27% (

0.63)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.53% (

-0.66)

16.47% (

0.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.83% (

-1.2)

46.17% (

1.2)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.66% (

0.35)

28.34% (

-0.35)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.92% (

0.44)

64.08% (

-0.44)

Score Analysis

Porto 50.15%

Sporting Lisbon 26.77%

Draw 23.08%

Porto	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
2-1 @ 9.57% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 8.42% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 7.59% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 5.76% ( -0.17) 3-0 @ 4.57% ( -0.18) 3-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.14) 4-0 @ 2.06% ( -0.13) 4-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.07) Other @ 3.39% Total : 50.15%	1-1 @ 10.61% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 6.04% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.67% ( 0.13) 3-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.08%	1-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 5.88% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 3.71% ( 0.17) 1-3 @ 2.81% ( 0.1) 2-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.09) Other @ 3.57% Total : 26.77%