Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 53.3%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 20.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.78%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (7.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match.
