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Primeira Liga | Gameweek 3
Aug 27, 2023 at 6pm UK
Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques
V

Guimaraes
2 - 0
Vizela

Silva (59'), Mendes (72')
Carlos (64')
Santos (82')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Guillermo Bustamante Cantillo (22'), Escoval (38'), Pereira (64')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Vizela 2-2 Arouca
Sunday, August 20 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

We said: Vitoria de Guimaraes 2-1 Vizela

Guimaraes have contended with managerial uncertainty to win their opening two league games, and with a new head coach now in place, we think that they will maintain their 100% start to the season by claiming a narrow win over Vizela. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 46.82%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Vizela had a probability of 26.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.56%), while for a Vizela win it was 0-1 (8.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.

Result
Vitoria de GuimaraesDrawVizela
46.82% (0.066000000000003 0.07) 26.6% (-0.035 -0.04) 26.59% (-0.029 -0.03)
Both teams to score 48.48% (0.076999999999998 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.24% (0.111 0.11)55.76% (-0.111 -0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.1% (0.09 0.09)76.9% (-0.088999999999999 -0.09)
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.19% (0.079999999999998 0.08)23.81% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.02% (0.114 0.11)57.98% (-0.112 -0.11)
Vizela Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.63% (0.036000000000001 0.04)36.37% (-0.035000000000004 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.84% (0.036999999999999 0.04)73.16% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Score Analysis
    Vitoria de Guimaraes 46.81%
    Vizela 26.59%
    Draw 26.59%
Vitoria de GuimaraesDrawVizela
1-0 @ 12.42% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
2-1 @ 9.02% (0.012 0.01)
2-0 @ 8.92% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-1 @ 4.31% (0.015 0.01)
3-0 @ 4.27% (0.012 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.18% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-1 @ 1.55% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.53% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.61%
Total : 46.81%
1-1 @ 12.56% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 8.66% (-0.037000000000001 -0.04)
2-2 @ 4.56% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
Other @ 0.81%
Total : 26.59%
0-1 @ 8.76% (-0.029 -0.03)
1-2 @ 6.36%
0-2 @ 4.43% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.14% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-3 @ 1.54% (0.004 0)
0-3 @ 1.49% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.87%
Total : 26.59%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Guimaraes 2-1 Gil Vicente
Saturday, August 19 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Estrela Amadora 0-1 Guimaraes
Sunday, August 13 at 6pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Guimaraes 0-1 Celje (2-4 pen.)
Thursday, August 3 at 8.15pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Celje 3-4 Guimaraes
Thursday, July 27 at 7pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Guimaraes 1-2 Wolves
Sunday, July 9 at 1pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Guimaraes 0-1 Middlesbrough
Saturday, July 8 at 1pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Vizela 2-2 Arouca
Sunday, August 20 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 3-2 Vizela
Saturday, August 12 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: AVS 1-0 Vizela
Friday, July 28 at 8.15pm in Taca da Liga
Last Game: Vizela 2-1 Maritimo
Saturday, July 22 at 3.30pm in Taca da Liga
Last Game: Vizela 1-2 Sporting Lisbon
Friday, May 26 at 9.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Maritimo 1-0 Vizela
Friday, May 19 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga


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