SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 45.21%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Gil Vicente |
45.21% ( 0.16) | 25.35% ( -0.05) | 29.43% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 54.18% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.74% ( 0.17) | 49.26% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.68% ( 0.15) | 71.31% ( -0.15) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.22% ( 0.14) | 21.78% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.02% ( 0.22) | 54.97% ( -0.22) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.27% ( 0.01) | 30.73% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.01% ( 0.01) | 66.99% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 10.2% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 7.77% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.66% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.95% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.75% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.78% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.51% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.37% Total : 45.21% | 1-1 @ 12.03% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 5.41% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.35% | 0-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 7.1% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.66% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.79% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.13% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.02% Total : 29.43% |
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