SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Gharafa win with a probability of 45.05%. A win for Al Arabi had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al Gharafa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.25%) and 2-0 (5.76%). The likeliest Al Arabi win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Al Gharafa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Al Gharafa | Draw | Al Arabi |
45.05% ( -0.29) | 22.45% ( 0.15) | 32.5% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 66.16% ( -0.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.74% ( -0.68) | 34.26% ( 0.68) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.84% ( -0.77) | 56.16% ( 0.77) |
| Al Gharafa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.18% ( -0.37) | 15.82% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55% ( -0.69) | 45% ( 0.69) |
| Al Arabi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.59% ( -0.25) | 21.41% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.59% ( -0.38) | 54.41% ( 0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Al Gharafa | Draw | Al Arabi |
| 2-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 6.25% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 5.76% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 5.45% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 3.54% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.51% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 1.94% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.63% ( -0.03)4-3 @ 1% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 0.93% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.98% Total : 45.05% | 1-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 6.84% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 3.39% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 2.16% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.43% Total : 22.45% | 1-2 @ 7.42% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 5.22% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 4.02% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 3.81% 2-3 @ 3.51% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.47% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.62% Total : 32.5% |
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